Remote Employment Opportunities

 TPLF's Last And Only Playing Card-IDP!!

By Habtamu Gurmu

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has strategically exploited the unfortunate of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Tigray to pressure Ethiopia’s federal government, aiming to regain influence at the national and regional level

. While the TPLF’s tactics are morally reprehensible—using vulnerable populations as political pawns—they have proven tactically effective in the absence of decisive counteraction from the federal government. This situation underscores a critical failure in federal strategy, as the government has yet to neutralize the TPLF’s last significant leverage point: the IDP crisis. By failing to act, the federal government risks prolonging the suffering of Tigrayan IDPs and ceding political ground to the TPLF. This analysis explores the dynamics of the TPLF’s strategy, the federal government’s inaction, and a proposed course of action to address the crisis, including potential risks and benefits.

The TPLF, significantly weakened since the Tigray conflict (2020–2022), has limited tools to reassert its influence over Ethiopia’s federal power structure. The IDP crisis, with over 1.1 million Tigrayans displaced as of late 2024 (according to UNHCR estimates), represents a potent political card. By controlling or influencing IDP camps and obstructing repatriation efforts, the TPLF can portray the federal government as incapable of addressing humanitarian needs, thereby undermining its legitimacy both domestically and internationally. This tactic also galvanizes support among Tigrayans, who may view the TPLF as their only advocate in a region plagued by insecurity and economic hardship.

The TPLF’s approach, while effective, is deeply unethical. It exploits the desperation of IDPs—many of whom face food insecurity, inadequate shelter, and lack of access to basic services—to maintain political relevance. The group’s ability to outmaneuver the federal government in this regard highlights a strategic gap in Addis Ababa’s response. The TPLF’s actions may also be bolstered by external actors sympathetic to their cause, further complicating the federal government’s position.

The federal government’s failure to address the IDP crisis proactively has allowed the TPLF to maintain its leverage.

 Several factors may explain this inaction:

1. Political Calculations: The government may fear that prioritizing Tigray’s IDPs could alienate other regions or ethnic groups, especially given Ethiopia’s complex ethno-political landscape.

2. Resource Constraints: The National Defense Forces (ENDF) and federal budget are stretched thin by ongoing conflicts in Amhara, Oromia, and other regions, limiting resources for large-scale repatriation efforts.

3. Diplomatic Pressures: International actors, including the UN and Western governments, have called for dialogue and reconciliation, potentially discouraging unilateral federal action in Tigray.

4. Security Concerns: The presence of TPLF-aligned armed groups in Tigray, Amhara, and Eritrea raises the risk of renewed violence, which the government may be reluctant to provoke.

However, this hesitation has significant costs. By allowing the TPLF to control the narrative around the IDP crisis, the federal government appears ineffective, reinforcing perceptions of weak governance. Moreover, prolonged displacement exacerbates humanitarian suffering and risks radicalizing Tigrayan communities, potentially fueling further unrest.

The federal government must act decisively to neutralize the TPLF’s leverage by prioritizing the safe return of Tigrayan IDPs to their homes. This requires a multi-faceted approach:

1. Mobilize the ENDF: The government should deploy the Ethiopian National Defense Forces to secure key routes and villages in Tigray, ensuring safe passage for returning IDPs. The ENDF’s superior manpower and resources make it capable of containing potential resistance from TPLF-aligned militias.

2. Humanitarian Coordination: Partner with international organizations like the UNHCR and local NGOs to provide food, shelter, and medical support during repatriation. This would enhance the operation’s legitimacy and address immediate needs.

3. Community Engagement: Engage Tigrayan community leaders to build trust and counter TPLF narratives. Transparent communication about the repatriation process can reduce fears of federal overreach.

4. Infrastructure Restoration: Invest in rebuilding basic infrastructure—roads, schools, and health facilities—in IDP home regions to ensure sustainable returns.

Mobilizing the ENDF to facilitate IDP returns carries both risks and opportunities. Below is a detailed assessment:

Worst-Case Scenario:

- TPLF Resistance: TPLF-aligned armed groups could engage the ENDF, leading to localized clashes. While the ENDF is likely to overpower these groups, fighting could disrupt repatriation efforts and cause civilian casualties, further alienating Tigrayans.

- International Backlash: Aggressive federal action might draw criticism from international actors, particularly if perceived as heavy-handed or bypassing dialogue with Tigrayan stakeholders.

- Logistical Failures: Poor planning or inadequate resources could lead to failed repatriation efforts, reinforcing TPLF narratives of federal incompetence.

Best-Case Scenario:

- Successful Repatriation: With effective ENDF deployment and humanitarian support, IDPs could return safely, weakening the TPLF’s leverage and restoring federal credibility.

- Tigrayan Support: A well-executed operation could win over Tigrayan communities, demonstrating the government’s commitment to their welfare and marginalizing the TPLF.

- Regional Stability: Resolving the IDP crisis could reduce tensions in Tigray, allowing the federal government to focus on other conflict zones.

To minimize risks, the federal government should:

- Engage Neutral Mediators: Involve international or regional actors (e.g., the African Union) to oversee repatriation and reduce perceptions of partisanship.

- Prioritize Non-Combat Operations: Use the ENDF primarily for security and logistics, avoiding direct confrontations with TPLF forces unless absolutely necessary.

- Communicate Clearly: Publicize the operation’s humanitarian goals to counter TPLF propaganda and gain domestic and international support.

Decisively addressing the IDP crisis could have far-reaching implications for Ethiopia’s stability. By removing the TPLF’s primary leverage point, the federal government can shift the political dynamic in Tigray, paving the way for reconciliation and reconstruction. However, this requires balancing military action with humanitarian sensitivity to avoid exacerbating ethnic tensions. Additionally, resolving the IDP crisis could set a precedent for addressing displacement in other regions, strengthening Ethiopia’s federal framework.

The TPLF’s exploitation of the Tigrayan IDP crisis is a calculated move to maintain political relevance, and the federal government’s inaction has allowed this strategy to persist. By mobilizing the ENDF, coordinating with humanitarian actors, and engaging local communities, the government can neutralize the TPLF’s leverage while addressing a pressing humanitarian need. While risks of resistance and logistical challenges exist, the ENDF’s capabilities and strategic planning can mitigate these concerns. Swift, decisive action is essential to return IDPs to their homes, restore federal credibility, and weaken the TPLF’s grip on Tigray’s future. The government must act now to reclaim the initiative and demonstrate its commitment to all Ethiopians, regardless of region or ethnicity.